Full title:
Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in the water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-production areas


Short title:
Water scarcity events in wheat-producing areas

Self explaining video clip
Water scarcity events in wheat-producing areas in 3 minutes

ANIMATION AND DATA AVAILABLITY PAGE

Authors: Miroslav Trnka, Song Feng, Mikhail A. Semenov, Jørgen E. Olesen, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Reimund P. Rötter, Daniela Semerádová, Karel Klem, Wei Huang, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Petr Hlavinka, Jan Meitner, Jan Balek, Ulf Büntgen

ANIMATION 1
Supplementary Animation 1. – RCP 2.6 (enclosed as separate file and accessible through this link: SWS_RCP26.mp4) shows annual extent of the Severe Water Scarcity events for period 1901-2016 based on the CRU data and then projections for 6 GCM models (CCSM, MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-LR, CSIRO-Mk 3.6, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR) representing the ensemble of 19 GCMs available for RCP 2.6 and used in the study.

ANIMATION 2
Supplementary Animation 2. – RCP 4.5 (enclosed as separate file and accessible through this link: SWS_RCP45.mp4) shows annual extent of the Severe Water Scarcity events for period 1901-2016 based on the CRU data and then projections for 6 GCM models (CCSM, MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-LR, CSIRO-Mk 3.6, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR) representing the ensemble of 27 GCMs available for RCP 4.5 and used in the study.

ANIMATION 3
Supplementary Animation 3. – RCP 8.5 (enclosed as separate file and accessible through this link: SWS_RCP85.mp4) shows annual extent of the Severe Water Scarcity events for period 1901-2016 based on the CRU data and then projections for 6 GCM models (CCSM, MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-LR, CSIRO-Mk 3.6, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR) representing the ensemble of 27 GCMs available for RCP 8.5 and used in the study.

Data Availability:

  1. at this link SWS & EWS (210 MB) you can download the complete global data on Severe and Extreme scarcity events as used in the study or you browse it through this link SWS & EWS (browse);

  2. If you request more detail data of SPEI used for SWS and EWS calculation please contact Miroslav Trnka (mirek_trnka@yahoo.com) and Jan Balek (jan.balek.83@seznam.cz), who developed the final version of the dataset. The dataset will be shared through a file share link through Czech Academy of Sciences servers. Please beware that the database requires at least 250 GB of disk space.

  3. The original climate data from the entire set of GCM that served for SPEI calculation are available from Dr. Song Feng (songfeng@uark.edu). The size will depend on the number of parameters, RCPs and GCMs requested.